Paradigm for Rate Cut

Months ago, it was unthinkable that the interest rates would stop increasing, or at least left as is. That’s not the case anymore. Wishful thinking for lower rates might come true this year.   Inflation Rate Despite increasing food inflation, overall inflation is consistently coming down. At 2,6% YoY, inflation is at its lowest point for the past ...

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Brace for Impacts

The economy is doing fine, but not great. The future looks alright, but not bright. Although the inflation (except food) is under control, the GDP growth dips slightly under 5%, a rare occurrence except during pandemic. source: bps.go.id Softening Commodity Prices Mineral (coal, metals, etc) exports accounted for 20% of total exports for the first 10 months this ...

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Food Security

There is general belief that economic growth means improved welfare, as long as the inflation is under control.   The latest inflation data shows a decline overall, which is encouraging. Source: bps.go.id   As for food (soft commodities), the inflation figure does not differ much, i.e. at 2,51% YoY. Food is a necessity, no argue about that. Good GDP, account ...

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Demographic Impact on the Economy

Demographics play an important role in the economic growth. Any demographic change can affect GDP, living standards, infrastructure investments, social welfare, etc.   Population Growth It is commonly understood that the higher the population growth, the better the economy will be. Some countries experiencing low birth rate are introducing more family-friendly schemes and accepting more skilled immigrants.   Age Structure There ...

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Whatever Sum Game

The Stock Market can be very unforgiving for some Investors without knowledge and experience. Still, knowledge and experience do not guarantee success when investing in the Stock Market. A bit of luck may help, but not in the long run.   Zero Sum Game Defined as when an Investor profits from a stock, there is another Investor that lose ...

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Defying the Odds

In a period where many analysts expect the economy turns sour, there is a glimpse of hope for some assets.   Against all odds, these assets are surprisingly resilient in their valuation so far.   Property Prices Property price is one main contributor to inflation. Higher interest rates were meant to hold price from escalating further.   Nonetheless, the residential property prices ...

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