Demographic Impact on the Economy

Demographics play an important role in the economic growth. Any demographic change can affect GDP, living standards, infrastructure investments, social welfare, etc.   Population Growth It is commonly understood that the higher the population growth, the better the economy will be. Some countries experiencing low birth rate are introducing more family-friendly schemes and accepting more skilled immigrants.   Age Structure There ...

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Whatever Sum Game

The Stock Market can be very unforgiving for some Investors without knowledge and experience. Still, knowledge and experience do not guarantee success when investing in the Stock Market. A bit of luck may help, but not in the long run.   Zero Sum Game Defined as when an Investor profits from a stock, there is another Investor that lose ...

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Defying the Odds

In a period where many analysts expect the economy turns sour, there is a glimpse of hope for some assets.   Against all odds, these assets are surprisingly resilient in their valuation so far.   Property Prices Property price is one main contributor to inflation. Higher interest rates were meant to hold price from escalating further.   Nonetheless, the residential property prices ...

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When Fundamental Numbers Are Not Enough

A common understanding is that in a bearish stock market, always revert to the fundamentals.   Fundamental analysis can identify whether a company stock is cheap enough to accumulate. If only it is that simple, however.   What can go wrong with fundamental analysis?     1. Selling pressure Most stocks are in the red compared to last year. There’s no sign of ...

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Energy Security

As the energy flow (supply chain) normalizes towards pre-pandemic level, the energy prices are falling back. This should be good news, especially when it comes to controlling inflation and avoiding recession. However, there are some reasons to be cautious. 1. Energy transition Renewable (green) energy is the future, for sure. The question is, how to get there. Fossil-fuel energy ...

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Blind Diversification

Diversification is often mistaken as spreading into as much investment assets as possible, as evenly as possible.   Here are common mistakes made.   1. Diversification without a strategy and purpose Having a strategy and purpose enhances quality of diversification.   For instance, some assets are meant to generate cash flow which will provide steady income during recessions. As for other riskier ...

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2022 Record Breaking

Records are meant to be broken. Year 2022 was the culmination of financial and commodities sectors. Record profits, revenues, margins, etc.   The financial reporting season nearly concludes with some remarkable results.   Commodities Coal prices tripled, fuel price doubled, nickel price spiked, ammonia price breached level not seen before, etc.   ADRO recorded nearly USD 3 billion in profits, with cash ...

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Buyers’ Market

The market has been lackluster so far in 2023. It applies to most assets, including the stock market.   Wait and See This is a common strategy that most Investors deploy for now. It’s not due to liquidity crunch. Not because there are not enough quality assets. It’s about securing those assets at lowest possible price.   It is a ...

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