What is the likelihood that Mutual Funds (Reksadana) consistently (over 5-10 year period) deliver over 20% average return a year? Extremely unlikely.

A Mutual Fund (Reksdana) that manage its risk properly will usually allocate the fund over diverse range of portfolio. Regardless of high gain in one asset (e.g. shares), overall return will average down due to moderate risk strategy.

For instance, assuming equal portion of investment for each type:

On the other hand, a Mutual Fund (Reksadana) that adopt high risk high gain strategy will usually find itself in potholes during financial crisis. Again, average return over 5-10 year period will eventually flatten, although it makes decent return in a few years.

For instance, a Mutual Fund that puts 100% of its fund in equity:

As a remark, performance of several best-performed publicly available Mutual Funds (Reksadana):

Hence, expecting returns of over 20% is baseless. Nonetheless, Mutual Funds’ average returns that beat the inflation (greater than 5%) should be considered good enough.